Will Colts keep Chris Ballard? Plus 4 more questions that will define Indy's offseason
SOURCE:The Athletic|BY:James Boyd
The Colts franchise is now a league bottom dweller, and it’s now Carlie Irsay-Gordon's responsibility to dig it out.
It’s officially a new year, but the Indianapolis Colts find themselves in familiar territory. They didn’t win the AFC South. They didn’t make the playoffs. And they didn’t change their reputation as a middling franchise whose glory days continue to slip further into the rearview mirror.
The franchise that once made annual trips to the postseason has now spent the last half-decade on the outside looking in after yet another second-half collapse. Since the Colts have already been eliminated from playoff contention, Sunday’s season-finale against the Houston Texans is really just a footnote until the real work begins this offseason.
A lot could change in a few days, or a lot could remain the same. It’ll be up to Colts principal owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon (and her sisters Kalen Jackson and Casey Foyt) to decide the future of the franchise and, better yet, choose whom she wants to lead them into that future.
Here are five questions that await Irsay-Gordon in a pivotal Colts offseason.
Should GM Chris Ballard be retained?
Ballard’s resume is not pretty. He’d be the first to admit that. He is 70-77-1 with just two playoff appearances, one postseason victory and zero AFC South titles in nine seasons. The Colts have now missed the playoffs for five straight years and have not won a postseason game since 2018. Typically, when a GM has underwhelmed to that degree, they aren’t around very long, let alone nearly an entire decade.
Of course, Ballard was thrown the curveball of a lifetime when Andrew Luck retired in the middle of his prime ahead of the 2019 campaign, though we’re well past the point where that can be used as an excuse for why the Colts haven’t rebounded. Ballard has been given several chances to find his future at quarterback via free agency, the trade market and the draft, but aside from signing Philip Rivers in 2020, he’s missed every time. The Colts traded for Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan, and both only lasted one season in Indianapolis. Ballard also drafted Anthony Richardson Sr. with the fourth pick in 2023, and the 23-year-old has started just 15 games since. Injuries, inaccuracy and immaturity — Richardson was benched for two games last year due to a lack of game preparation — have plagued his NFL career, and it’s fair to wonder if the QB will even be on the roster next season.
This year, to his credit, Ballard finally changed his stripes and was more aggressive than he’s ever been, and early on, he appeared to strike gold. Quarterback Daniel Jones, cornerback Charvarius Ward Sr., free safety Cam Bynum and kicker Spencer Shrader headlined the Colts’ free agency class, and all four made immediate and positive impacts. However, Indianapolis was decimated by injuries — most notably with Jones tearing his right Achilles in Week 14 — and Bynum is the only member of that free agency quartet who won’t end the year on injured reserve.
Moreover, Ballard also traded the Colts’ next two first-round picks and wide receiver AD Mitchell to the New York Jets in exchange for two-time first-team All-Pro Sauce Gardner, which was a move Irsay-Gordon co-signed at the time. However, a left calf injury has limited Gardner to just two full games since joining the Colts.
Obviously, Ballard couldn’t have predicted the future, or he likely would’ve hung on to his team’s draft capital. Still, as the 2025 season comes to an end, it feels like the crux of having Ballard stay or go comes down to how much Irsay-Gordon weighs this season — a season in which the Colts became the first time in 30 years to start 8-2 and miss the playoffs — versus his disappointing nine-year tenure. If she feels as though the Colts just suffered bad luck this year and she believes in Ballard’s vision for the future, then perhaps she’ll give him another chance. Then again, Ballard has already been given multiple opportunities to right his wrongs, and he has little to show for it.
“They believe when you win,” Ballard said in August. “If you don’t (win), they don’t believe.”
Should coach Shane Steichen be retained?
Steichen’s seat probably isn’t as warm as Ballard’s, but he also shouldn’t feel safe. Through three years, Steichen is 25-25 and 8-9 in the AFC South. The Colts have routinely beaten up on the lowly Titans during his tenure, going 6-0, though they’re just 2-9 against the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars, who are the last two teams to win the division.
Despite his struggles in the AFC South, Steichen deserves credit for what he’s done in unfavorable QB situations. After Richardson underwent season-ending shoulder surgery during Steichen’s first year in 2023, the coach helped his team get to within one drive of winning the division title and making the playoffs with backup Gardner Minshew running the show. The Colts’ passing offense struggled again in 2024 with Richardson and backup Joe Flacco at the helm, but when the team made a concerted effort to change course and sign Jones in 2025, it became abundantly clear what Steichen is capable of once he had a more consistent passer in his system.
Jones, the 2019 No. 6 pick, who’d been released by the New York Giants in 2024, quickly resurrected his career in Indianapolis. The veteran was playing at a Pro Bowl level and operating one of the best offenses of this century — with the Colts averaging 3.17 points per drive through their first 10 games, which was the fourth-highest mark since 2000 — until he fractured his left fibula and ultimately tore his right Achilles.
Unable to turn to Richardson, who suffered an orbital fracture during pregame warmups in Week 6, Steichen could’ve handed the keys to rookie sixth-round pick Riley Leonard, but instead, he called his longtime friend, Philip Rivers, and coaxed the 44-year-old out of retirement. It was always a long shot for Rivers (or Leonard, for that matter) to lead the Colts to the playoffs, and soon enough, the Colts were eliminated during what has now turned into a six-game losing streak.
One thought worth keeping in mind is that while Ballard and Steichen may not be a package deal, if Irsay-Gordon fires Ballard, a new GM would likely want to choose their next coach and quarterback, which leads me to my next question.
What is the Colts’ plan at quarterback?
Jones quickly earned the respect and trust of the franchise with the way he played this season, so much so that the Colts mortgaged their future to help him before they even reached their bye week. After a 7-2 start, the team shipped its 2026 and 2027 first-round picks to the Jets in the Gardner deal, which could be viewed as forfeiting two chances to draft a young quarterback in case Jones didn’t work out.
As it stands now, it would be fair to say he hasn’t. Although Jones finished with 3,101 passing yards and 19 passing touchdowns against eight picks, while completing 68 percent of his passes, he’s now rehabbing from a torn right Achilles. The Colts are expected to retain the soon-to-be unrestricted free agent, assuming Ballard and Steichen are retained, but it’s not a given that he’ll be the same player he once was, especially in his first season back.
It’s also worth noting that if Ballard and Steichen are fired, a new GM and coach likely wouldn’t want to hitch their wagon to a quarterback coming off one of the most devastating injuries in pro sports. In that scenario, perhaps Richardson would be given another shot under new leadership, though he’s working back from a major injury of his own. The three-year pro was not activated off injured reserve for the season finale, and he’s yet to regain full vision in his right eye as he continues rehabbing from an orbital fracture.
“I feel like every day in general, my eyesight has been improving, especially from when it first happened,” Richardson said Wednesday. “But every day is going to be a day for improving or healing. Obviously, my eye isn’t 100 percent. It’s getting there day by day. I don’t really notice it on the field much. I would more so say in daily life, just stuff in a one-foot radius, that type of thing.”
Richardson remains optimistic about his NFL future, but it’s probably safe to say that until he can see correctly, he won’t be a big part of any team’s future.
The Colts could always try to pursue a veteran free agent QB like Malik Willis or trade for Mac Jones, though it’s fair to suggest their production as spot starters this season may not be as fruitful if they were named QB1 for a full campaign in Indianapolis.
Can this aging core of players still produce — and ultimately win?
Since the Colts’ last playoff appearance in 2020, they’ve crumbled on an annual basis in December and January. They lost a win-and-in game against the three-win Jaguars in 2021. They completely fell apart during a 4-12-1 campaign in 2022 in which they lost their last seven games. They lost another win-and-in game against the Houston Texans in 2023. They lost two late-season must-win games against the Denver Broncos and the Giants in 2024, keeping them out of the playoffs. And this year, they became just the sixth team since the NFL/AFL merger in 1970 to start 7-1 and miss the playoffs.
Yes, the QB carousel has been a major factor in the team’s annual collapses, but its veteran core can’t be absolved either. Left guard Quenton Nelson, running back Jonathan Taylor, wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr., cornerback Kenny Moore II, linebacker Zaire Franklin and defensive tackles Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner — the latter of whom is undergoing neck surgery this week — have all been named All-Pro, Pro Bowlers and/or earned lucrative extensions — yet have nothing to show for it collectively.
The Colts are a combined 9-16 in December and January over the past five years, and as this core ages, it’s fair to wonder if Irsay-Gordon should keep all of them around. After all, it hasn’t worked in recent years, and it would be naïve to think that the same formula would work in 2026 with better injury luck.
“It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish,” Moore said Wednesday, acknowledging his team’s latest second-half collapse. “You can’t really bank on what happens in September and October. No one really cares until it comes down the stretch to get into the playoffs. So, I think this season has a lot of lessons when it comes to being on the highest of the highs and the lowest of the lows.”
What is the Colts’ standard?
Irsay-Gordon, in her first news conference as the principal owner, sent a warning to the leaders of her franchise.
“As my dad said before he passed, Chris and Shane know that they have things they need to fix,” Irsay-Gordon said in June. “We talked about not micromanaging people, but also, we have a standard here, and it hasn’t been good enough.”
The 2025 campaign wasn’t good enough, either. The Colts are now tied for the fourth-longest playoff drought in the NFL and their longest postseason hiatus in over 30 years. Irsay-Gordon jokingly asked the media if we had “a crystal ball” when she was asked if the 2025 season was a ”playoffs or else” season, regarding the futures of Steichen and Ballard.
She wisely kept her cards close to the vest and noted that a myriad of things could derail a season — “if we had all these injuries decimate (our team) — knock on wood on that — (it could change my perspective),” she said — but pretty soon, her decisions will reveal her standards. The franchise her father once considered to be in the “upper quartile of that top quartile of winners” during the 2000s is now a bottom dweller, and it’s his eldest daughter’s responsibility to dig the Colts out.